Friday, March 14, 2025
We begin the final pre-market session for this trading week in the green, based partly on fears being somewhat assuaged that the federal government was headed for a shutdown, and partly on the recognition that key equities are currently on sale with the S&P 500 broaching correction levels. The Dow is up +278 points, +0.68%, the S&P 500 +59, +1.07%, the Nasdaq +278, +1.44% and the small-cap Russell 2000 +23 points, +1.15%.
It would take a huge 180 in market sentiment to get back to the green for the week on these indexes. A daily dollop of new, more austere tariffs directed at our biggest global trading partners is chief among these concerns. The “Trump bump” the market saw from last November through the first month of the year has completely dissipated, as the market now prices in a tariff environment no longer as “just a bargaining tool.”
Meanwhile, Chinese stocks are at their highs from the start of 2025, with the CSI 300 +6% year to date. The FTSE, which tracks the European equities markets, is +3.5% from the beginning of the year, though down notably from its all-time high in the early days of this month. Gold prices have surged above $3000 for the first time ever — a clear hedge against the Wall of Worry currently occupying the U.S. market indexes.
What to Expect from the Stock Market Today
With Q4 earnings season now complete but the end of calendar Q1 still a couple weeks away, we’re quieter on the normal cycle of events which may influence the markets. No major economic reports are hitting the tape until after today’s open, when the latest (preliminary)
University of Michigan survey on Consumer Sentiment
comes out at 10am ET. Expectations there are for a further downtick from February, which was already the lowest print of the last 12 months.
The big question, based on the past few weeks of trading we’ve seen: Pre-market futures are up — but so what? Session after session we’ve seen these indexes erode during normal trading hours, based on various unexpected events causing market participants to question what’s going on in real time. Recall, we’re only three weeks or so off all-time market highs. This is the fastest fall to correction territory since the Covid pandemic.
Looking Ahead to Next Week
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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